Section 1: Probability Management Basics

- Post Traumatic Statistics Disorder (PTSD)
- The Flaw of Averages
- The Arithmetic of Uncertainty
- Limbic Analytics: Connecting the Seat of the Intellect to the Seat of the Pants
- The Hindu/Arabic Numerals of Uncertainty
- The Probability Power Grid
- Data Table Simulation in Excel

Section 2: The Five Mindles of Uncertainty

A MINDle lets you grasp something with your mind as a HANDle lets you grasp something with your hand. Understanding the arithmetic of uncertainty requires grasping five concepts beyond the operations of standard arithmetic. They are:

- Risk vs. Uncertainty
- Uncertain Numbers
- Combinations of Uncertainties
- Plans Based on Uncertainties
- Interrelated Uncertainties

Section 3: Introduction to Applications

- Nonlinear cost functions
- Building a Risk Model
- Estimating distributions from forecasts

Section 4: The Human Element

The PTSD picked up in a statistics class may be addressed through the following concepts:

- The permission to be uncertain
- Unambiguous Uncertainty
- Limbic Analytics