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ISCEA: Forecasting Techniques for Slow and Rapidly Changing Demand

Master quantitative, judgmental and causal models used to forecast seasonal, intermittent, and new product future demand. Choose the right forecasting method for all kinds of demand patterns and sales data. Learn how to deal with randomness and low forecastability; missing data, outliers, and overfitting. Separate forecasting myths from reality and mitigate the risk of inaccurate forecasts.

Part of the ISCEA CFDP - Certified Forecaster and Demand Planner - Internationally Recognized Certificate.

Forecasting Techniques for Slow and Rapidly Changing Demand
4 weeks
2–8 hours per week
Progress at your own speed
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Starts Dec 1

About this course

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Supply shortages, pandemics, military wars, trade wars, and other disruptive events have a significant impact in both consumer behaviour and product availability. Companies are becoming aware that historical sales data sets might no longer be relevant; and that the customary forecasting methods are not the best for their new current situation.

This is the reason why, demand for skilled, critical and flexible Demand Planners with broad perspective is on the rise.

In this course you will be able to decide if previously used forecasting techniques are the right ones for today's "New Normal" business environment. You will be capable of forecasting customer demand of different offerings going through different stages in their product life cycles; using causal and judgemental techniques, market research, statistical methods, time series of past sales and most recent customer orders.

You will also be able to separate relevant from non-relevant data, and mitigate the impact of low forecast accuracy in demand planning, inventory management and profitability.

By the end of this course, that is part of the edX Professional Certificate program to become a Certified Forecaster and Demand Planner (CFDP), you will be able to choose the right forecasting method for each data pattern and understand how to improve forecast performance with Machine Learning and Lean Six Sigma principles.

CFDP certified professionals are globally preferred by recruiters for decision making positions because they are capable of forecasting both slow and rapidly changing seasonal, intermittent and new product demand.

To become an ISCEA Certified Forecaster and Demand Planner (CFDP), you must complete all three preparatory courses and successfully pass the CFDP Exam.

At a glance

  • Language: English
  • Video Transcript: English
  • Associated skills: Inventory Management, Statistical Methods, Machine Learning, Forecasting, Consumer Behaviour, Demand Planning, Sales, Outliers, Time Series, Lean Six Sigma, Customer Demand Planning, Decision Making, Market Research, New Product Development, Missing Data

What you'll learn

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  • To develop quantitative, judgmental, and causal forecasting models for seasonal, intermittent, and new product demand.
  • How to choose the right forecasting method for each data pattern.
  • How to improve forecast performance with Machine Learning and Lean Six Sigma principles.
  • To assess forecast performance based on forecast precision, forecast accuracy and forecastability
  • How to mitigate the risk of inaccurate forecasts and deal with randomness, low forecastability, missing data, outliers, disruptive events, and overfitting.

Section 2.1. Forecasting myths, realities and challenges

2.1.1. Forecasting myth 1 - About predicting the future

2.1.2. Forecasting myth 2 - About choosing a forecasting model

2.1.3. Forecasting myth 3 - About model fitting

2.1.4. Forecasting myth 4 - About model sophistication

2.1.5. Forecasting myth 5 - About About Artificial Intelligence

2.1.6. Forecasting myth 6 - About modeling data

Section 2.2. Forecasting based on historical data

2.2.1. The role of historical data in forecasting

2.2.2. Missing data, events and outliers

2.2.3. Naïve and Moving Average Methods

2.2.4. Exponential smoothing and linear regression

2.2.5. ARIMA models

Section 2.3. Seasonal demand forecasting

2.3.1. Decomposition method

2.3.2. Decomposition method example

2.3.3. Holt-Winters method

2.3.4. Holt-Winters method example

Section 2.4. Intermittent demand forecasting

2.4.1. Croston method

Section 2.5. Judgmental and causal forecasting models

2.5.1. Judgmental forecasting models

2.5.2. Causal forecasting models

Section 2.6. Forecasting with Machine Learning

2.6.1. Machine learning fundamentals

2.6.2. Decision trees in machine learning

2.6.3. Machine learning example

Section 2.7. New product forecasting

2.7.1. New product forecasting fundamentals

2.7.2. Assumptions-based modeling and scenario analysis

2.7.3. Quantitative analysis to forecast new product demand

Section 2.8. Forecast performance

2.8.1. Forecast error

2.8.2. Impact of aggregation on forecast accuracy

2.8.3. Forecast accuracy and forecastability

Section 2.9. Impact of randomness and disruptive events in forecasts

2.9.1. Understanding randomness and disruptive events

2.9.2. Mitigating risk

Section 2.10. Improving forecasting with Lean and Six Sigma Principles

2.10.1. Forecast Value-Added Analysis

2.10.2. Applying Six Sigma methodologies to forecasting

Frequently Asked Questions

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How will this course get me closer to become an ISCEA Certified Forecaster and Demand Planner - CFDP?

  • This course is one of 3 courses required to become a CFDP. The completion of the following courses is required to take the CFDP Certification Exam:
    • CFDP01: Improving Supply Chain Performance through Demand Planning
    • CFDP02: Forecasting Techniques for Slow and Rapidly Changing Demand
    • CFDP03: Demand Management in a Demand Driven Supply Chain
  • After completing the three courses you have to pass the Certification Exam to earn the CFDP designation:
    • CFDP-EXAM: Certified Forecaster and Demand Planner - CFDP - Certification Exam

Who can take this course?

Unfortunately, learners residing in one or more of the following countries or regions will not be able to register for this course: Iran, Cuba and the Crimea region of Ukraine. While edX has sought licenses from the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to offer our courses to learners in these countries and regions, the licenses we have received are not broad enough to allow us to offer this course in all locations. edX truly regrets that U.S. sanctions prevent us from offering all of our courses to everyone, no matter where they live.

This course is part of Certified Forecaster and Demand Planner (CFDP) Professional Certificate Program

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Expert instruction
4 skill-building courses
3 months
2 - 8 hours per week

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