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Fat Chance: Probability from the Ground Up

Increase your quantitative reasoning skills through a deeper understanding of probability and statistics.

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There is one session available:

92,737 already enrolled!
Starts Jun 8
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Fat Chance: Probability from the Ground Up

Increase your quantitative reasoning skills through a deeper understanding of probability and statistics.

7 weeks
3–5 hours per week
Self-paced
Progress at your own speed
Free
Optional upgrade available

There is one session available:

92,737 already enrolled! After a course session ends, it will be archivedOpens in a new tab.
Starts Jun 8
Enroll
Fat Chance: Probability from the Ground Up

About this course

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Created specifically for those who are new to the study of probability, or for those who are seeking an approachable review of core concepts prior to enrolling in a college-level statistics course, Fat Chance prioritizes the development of a mathematical mode of thought over rote memorization of terms and formulae. Through highly visual lessons and guided practice, this course explores the quantitative reasoning behind probability and the cumulative nature of mathematics by tracing probability and statistics back to a foundation in the principles of counting.

In Modules 1 and 2, you will be introduced to basic counting skills that you will build upon throughout the course. In Module 3, you will apply those skills to simple problems in probability. In Modules 4 through 6, you will explore how those ideas and techniques can be adapted to answer a greater range of probability problems. Lastly, in Module 7, you will be introduced to statistics through the notion of expected value, variance, and the normal distribution. You will see how to use these ideas to approximate probabilities in situations where it is difficult to calculate their exact values.

At a glance

  • Institution: HarvardX
  • Subject: Math
  • Level: Introductory
  • Prerequisites:

    High school algebra

  • Language: English
  • Video Transcript: English
  • Associated programs:
  • Associated skills: Normal Distribution, Basic Math, Guided Practice, Probability And Statistics, Probability, Statistics

What you'll learn

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  • An increased appreciation for, and reduced fear of, basic probability and statistics
  • How to solve combinatorial counting problems
  • How to solve problems using basic and advanced probability
  • An introductory understanding of the normal distribution and its many statistical applications
  • An ability to recognize common fallacies in probability, as well as some of the ways in which statistics are abused or simply misunderstood

Syllabus

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1 Basic Counting

  • 1.1 Counting Numbers
  • 1.2 Large Numbers
  • 1.3 The Multiplication Principle
  • 1.4 More on the Multiplication Principle and Factorials
  • 1.5 The Subtraction Principle

2 Advanced Counting

  • 2.1 Counting Collections
  • 2.2 Binomial Coefficients
  • 2.3 Applications of Collections
  • 2.4 Multinomials
  • 2.5 Collections with Repetition

3 Basic Probability

  • 3.1 Flipping Coins
  • 3.2 Rolling Dice
  • 3.3 Playing Poker
  • 3.4 Distributions of Bridge Hands

4 Expected Value

  • 4.1 Expected Value: Chuck-A-Luck
  • 4.2 Expected Value: Slot Machines
  • 4.3 Strategizing

5 Conditional Probability

  • 5.1 The Monty Hall Problem
  • 5.2 Conditional Probability: Set-Up and Examples
  • 5.3 Conditional Probability: Elections

6 Bernoulli Trials

  • 6.1 Bernoulli Trials
  • 6.2 The Gambler's Ruin

7 The Normal Distribution

  • 7.1 Games
  • 7.2 Games: Examples and Variance
  • 7.3 Iterating Games
  • 7.4 The Normal Distribution - Part 1
  • 7.5 The Normal Distribution - Part 2

About the instructors

Frequently Asked Questions

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Honor Code
HarvardX requires individuals who enroll in its courses on edX to abide by the terms of the edX honor code. HarvardX will take appropriate corrective action in response to violations of the edX honor code, which may include dismissal from the HarvardX course; revocation of any certificates received for the HarvardX course; or other remedies as circumstances warrant. No refunds will be issued in the case of corrective action for such violations. Enrollees who are taking HarvardX courses as part of another program will also be governed by the academic policies of those programs.

Nondiscrimination/Anti-Harassment
Harvard University and HarvardX are committed to maintaining a safe and healthy educational and work environment in which no member of the community is excluded from participation in, denied the benefits of, or subjected to discrimination or harassment in our program. All members of the HarvardX community are expected to abide by Harvard policies on nondiscrimination, including sexual harassment, and the edX Terms of Service. If you have any questions or concerns, please contact harvardx@harvard.edu and/or report your experience through the edX contact form.

Research Statement
HarvardX pursues the science of learning. By registering as an online learner in an HX course, you will also participate in research about learning. Read our research statement to learn more.

This course is part of Learning Python for Data Science Professional Certificate Program

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Expert instruction
3 skill-building courses
Self-paced
Progress at your own speed
6 months
3 - 6 hours per week

Ways to take this course

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Verified Track
Audit Track

Price

$149 USD

Free

Access to course materials

Unlimited

Limited

Expires on Jul 27

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edX support

Shareable certificate upon completion

Graded assignments and exams

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